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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-10T00:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33297/-1
CME Note: Wide CME associated with a long duration M1.2-class flare from Active Region 3814 (N15E10) seen predominantly to the northeast in SOHO C2 imagery and east-northeast in STEREO A COR2. The eruptive signature is seen as a large-broad scale destabilization seen as a surge-like brightening in SDO AIA 131, opening and brightening field lines in GOES SUVI 284 with additional dimming and an EUV wave to the north, and bright, high post-eruptive arcades seen best in SDO AIA 171/193/304. There is a data gap in real-time in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 at the start of the CME from approx. 2024-09-09T21:48Z to 2024-09-10T01:25Z. CME arrival detected by ACE starting at 2024-09-12T02:53Z. Increase in B_total to about 16nT with subsequent jump in B_total peaking at ~26nT at ~2024-09-12T09:35Z. This arrival is accompanied by an increase in velocity from ~360 km/s to ~420nT, followed by a second jump in velocity to ~550 km/s corresponding to the additional jumps in B_total. There is also an associated increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-12T02:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-12T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Lead Time: 21.65 hour(s)
Difference: -19.12 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-09-11T05:14Z

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